Que signifie la politique agressive de Trump pour l'économie américaine ? - Johan Van Geeteruyen, CIO Fundamental Equity

Johan Van Geeteruyen, CIO Fundamental Equity chez DPAM, partage sa vision sur le deuxième mandat de Trump et ce que cela signifie pour l'économie américaine. Chez DPAM, ils continuent de privilégier les États-Unis dans leur stratégie d'investissement.

“Trump’s inaugural address outlined his priorities for his second term, emphasizing a swift reversal of many Biden administration policies and aggressive actions on the border, energy, and more. The overarching theme was the continued prominence of US exceptionalism. Executive Orders on trade, energy, immigration, healthcare, a regulatory freeze, and the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) reinforced the key themes from his address. In the near term, market attention will likely focus on efforts to boost U.S. energy production, the effects of immigration restrictions, and the implementation of tariffs.

The president’s trade memo called for a review of trade relationships and proposed an assertive approach to trade, with new tariffs potentially starting as early as February 1. The US economy is expected to experience another year of minimal or no recession. Expansionary fiscal policy will again offset the effects of a still slightly restrictive monetary policy. The growing deficit will drive inflation, keeping interest rates high and the dollar strong. Currently, financial conditions are favorable for growth.

As BCA Research aptly notes in its “Daily Insight”: the Trump administration will be proactive rather than reactive, unilateral rather than multilateral, and hawkish rather than dovish on global trade and immigration. A potential risk? The Fed might need to raise rates if Trump enacts significantly higher tariffs and mass deportations, which could sharply accelerate inflation. However, Trump is somewhat constrained, as high inflation and rising bond yields would be unwelcomed by markets. Additionally, Trump still requires Congress to pass key parts of his agenda (such as tax extensions and changes to existing laws), meaning the economic impact will take time to materialize. ​ The main conclusions from the 2025 outlook remain valid a.o. the US remains our preferred play followed by Europe.”